Men's Health ranks Salt Lake City Top #3 in Nation

Mens Health Mag ranks Salt Lake City #3 on the list for best cities for men to live in 2010.

Salt Lake City, UT: Men's Health.com

Real Estate Franchises: Most Recognizable Brands for 2009

I JUST MADE THE RIGHT MOVE, KELLER WILLIAMS IS #1.

by Stefan Swanepoel

11,000+ Agents Cast 390,000 Votes to Select the Top 10

It’s been almost 40 years since franchising entered the residential real estate industry; a move that has shaped the industry like few other concepts or strategies before or since. The impact of franchising ranks with MLS and the Internet as the top three game changing strategies in real estate since WW II.

Today there are a growing number of agents questioning the value proposition of real estate franchising. They point to some of the “older models” that seem to offer little more than a brand; a brand of questioned value in today’s online world. A franchise company’s long term success (or failure) is therefore dependent upon both its model standing the test of time and its implementation systems supporting the local franchisee in successfully putting those models into operation.

In the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report, scheduled for publication on February 8th, 2010 — reserve a copy now at www.RETrends.com) — a whole trend is dedicated to analyzing real estate franchising. The trend discusses the changes that have occurred during the last year including bankruptcies, acquisitions, large mergers, the re-introduction of previously dormant franchise brands and the launch of several new ones.

The Report details the Top 20 largest franchises based on agent count as of December 2009, inclusive of recent changes and acquisitions up and including that date.

However, as an additional test RealSure (www.realsure.com), the publishers of the Swanepoel TRENDS Report and the Swanepoel SOCIAL MEDIA Report, decided that it would be interesting to compare agent count rankings with the perception and recognizability of franchise brands by the industry itself.

So on Thursday December 3rd a nationwide online survey was launched to determine the “Most Recognizable Franchise Brand in Real Estate.”

With real estate agents being independent contractors and fiercely loyal to their respective brand the vote quickly garnished huge attention. It went viral through various social media networks, blogs and emails encouraging agents to vote.

In the end an astonishing 11,355 agents voted, casting just over 390,000 votes for 33 different real estate franchise brands making this — according to knowledge — the largest survey of its kind in the industry. The survey required real estate professionals to vote for a franchise on a scale from 0 – 5; starting from “Never heard of the brand” all the way up to “Excellent brand.” The brand’s scores in all categories were taken into consideration to determine the overall rankings. In the end there was a significant difference in the vote count between most of the top 10, thereby solidifying the placement of the brands.

Although another survey can produce different results and rankings, we are confident that this is a very good reflection of the real estate brokerage industry’s current opinion and awareness of the franchise brands that serve them.

The Top 10 real estate franchises, most recognized by the real estate industry as quality national brands are:

1.Keller Williams Realty
2.Coldwell Banker Real Estate
3.RE/MAX International
4.Century 21 Real Estate
5.Prudential Real Estate
6.Sotheby’s International Realty
7.EXIT Realty
8.ERA Real Estate
9.Weichert Real Estate Affiliates
10.Better Homes & Gardens Real Estate


The franchises that made it to the Top 5 were to be expected and are also the five largest real estate franchises in the country. The Top 5 also comfortably attracted more votes than the second five on the list, strongly pointing to the industry’s own internal belief that these are the top five franchise brands that agents would like to work for.

Keller Williams Realty’s surprising #1 ranking was most likely due to the strong, above average online and social media presence of their agents and the fact that during 2009 KW surpassed RE/MAX in agent count according to a widely published REAL Trends survey..

The 103-year old Coldwell Banker franchise has been the beneficiary of many NRT, Inc. acquisitions that have allowed the brand to remain at the forefront of many agents in a positive way. RE/MAX with their powerful consumer portal has also enjoyed the highest profile on national television of all the brands, thereby probably contributing to their high ranking.

Most interesting was the strong showing of Sotheby’s International Realty at #6, ahead of ERA Real Estate (a more established brand in real estate) and EXIT Realty (a more bolder promoter). The ranking was most likely attributed to the luxury homes image that many agents attach to the brand.

Long standing independent and northeast-based regional Weichert REALTORS converted to a franchise seven years ago and has steadily grown. Impressively it was able to break into the top 10 as a recognizable national brand.

Also surprising was the fact that newcomer Better Homes & Gardens squeezed out companies like Realty Executives, John L Scott and Windermere (both still regional players) to claim the last spot in the Top 10. This was most likely attributable to the recent news that 2,000-agent Metro Brokers switched from GMAC to BH&G as well as a few other key acquisitions.

The housing market is smaller than it was three years ago, yet we have more franchisors today than we did back then. Clearly the market is over saturated and yet the franchises reflected on this list are, according to thousands of agents that work for them and for their competitors, the best of the best.

At the end of the day, real estate brokers and agents want and need different kinds of support and thus different franchisors will attract different brokers and agents. For a detailed discussion on franchising, what the 7 key different types of real estate franchises are and which of the strategies currently work the best, read the 2010 Swanepoel TRENDS Report. Secure your copy at a special pre-publication discount of 34% when ordering at http://www.realestatebooks.org/items/Swanepoel_TRENDS_Report_2010.htm

Survey methodology:

The poll was conducted online within the United States between December 3rd and December 11th, 2009 among 11,355 real estate professionals.

All surveys and polls are subject to multiple sources of error that are not possible to quantify. Especially with online polls the errors associated with wording, selection, exposure and attempts to manipulate the vote make it very difficult to guarantee results. Post-survey weighting and adjustments are made to adjust for irregularities found in the voting but we avoid using the term “margin of error” as we feel it is still misleading.

Due to the very large number of real estate professionals that voted it is felt that the results closely reflect the opinion of the majority in the industry.

If You Don't Buy a House Now, You're Stupid or Broke

By Marc Roth

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth.

Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don't want to move. Or maybe you're a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don't act soon, you will regret it. Here's why: historically low interest rates.

As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.

In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let's look at the point on the far left.

In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers.

But they weren't happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.

Interest Rate Lessons
And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We've since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable.

So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?

First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.

Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.

Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home.

Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let's assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide. Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000.

Loan Costs
Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.

Let's put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is "more stable" and it's safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.

If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you're borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.

What I'm trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home. If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.

Marc Roth is the founder and president of Home Warranty of America

Banks Take Losses on Short Sales as Foreclosures Soar

By John Gittelsohn and Margaret Collins

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Drew Schlosser tried for two years to sell his three-bedroom Punta Gorda, Florida, waterfront condominium for less than he owed on its two mortgages. The deal only went through last month when Wells Fargo & Co. agreed to take a $165,000 loss on the loans.

Even after he had an offer of $155,000 for the property, it took five months for the San Francisco-based lender to approve the purchase, a so-called short sale, in which the bank accepts less than the balance owed on a property. Schlosser said earlier offers had fallen through as bidders lost faith the bank would take less than the $320,000 in two mortgages.

“It was just kind of a mess,” said Schlosser, 31, a market research company director living in Estero, Florida. “You really have to get buyers who are patient.”

Banks are beginning to go along with short sales in increasing numbers, three years into a U.S. housing slump that pushed the economy into a recession and cut resale values by 30 percent from the peak in July 2006. Short sales almost tripled to 40,000 in the first six months of 2009 from the same period a year earlier. Yet for each short sale, there were 25 foreclosures started or completed in the first half of this year, according to data from the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

“It’s really finally dawning on banks that they’re better off with a short sale,” said Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. “I think banks were in denial.”

Obama Pressure

Wells Fargo, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. this year have hired and trained more staff, developed software systems for expediting short sales, and increased marketing of short sales to delinquent borrowers.

Banks are increasing such sales under pressure from the Obama administration and lawmakers who criticized them for favoring foreclosures and delaying short sales, Green said. Lenders and loan servicers also stand to receive up to $2,000 in incentives to close short sales under a Treasury Department plan unveiled Nov. 30.

“Judging by how slowly the modification plan is up and running, it doesn’t lend confidence this is going to jump start things,” Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Economy.com, said in a phone interview. “They’re saying the right things, but nothing so far suggests it’s going to work in a measurable way.”

The increase in banks agreeing to take losses on mortgages is helping some home buyers and real estate brokers.

‘Lucky Deal’

Pat Meislik, 63, started looking for a house in San Diego in March and said she felt locked out of the California market until short sales in her price range became available.

“There were times when I had looked at homes before and could only afford a condo,” said Meislik, an accountant and financial analyst.

Meislik closed on a three-bedroom “fixer upper” for $280,000 in May. “By the time it ended I felt lucky.”

Lender Countrywide Financial Corp., now part of Bank of America, lost about $150,000 on the $406,000 loan to the previous owner, said Meislik’s realtor Deborah Reed. Wells Fargo settled the second $47,252 mortgage on the home for less than 10 cents on the dollar, she said.

“The tide is turning,” said Reed, who works at Coldwell Banker in San Diego, where the price of a single family home has dropped 38 percent since the peak, according to the S&P Case- Shiller Home Price Indexes. “All of a sudden the banks are being more cooperative.”

More Short Sales

Reed said she completed four short sales in the past four months and the banks agreed to as much as $400,000 in losses.

Lenders have been reluctant to do such sales because they didn’t have procedures for employees to approve a financial loss for the company, said Alan White, assistant professor at Valparaiso University School of Law in Valparaiso, Indiana.

“A short sale requires somebody to stick their neck out and make a decision,” said White, an expert in consumer law and bankruptcy. “There are not good structures in place to incentivize losses.”

Bankers also have been slow to sign off on short sales because homeowner associations, mortgage insurers and second- lien holders may not agree to the terms of the deal, said Michael Frantantoni, vice president of single family research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Loan Modifications

The first choice for lenders has been to try to keep borrowers in their homes, offering loan modifications as an alternative to foreclosure, Frantantoni said. More than half of the modifications of delinquent mortgages re-defaulted within a year, according to a Sept. 30 report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

“The single biggest problem was the lack of a vehicle or mechanism at most banks to handle short sales,” said Walter Molony, a National Association of Realtors spokesman. “You could say they were shortsighted in dealing with the problem.”

Pressure is building to approve short sales as the number of delinquent mortgages has grown to 3.2 million and an estimated 7 million foreclosures loom in the next two to three years, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc., which compiles and sells U.S. mortgage delinquency data.

New Treasury Department guidelines for foreclosure alternatives scheduled to take effect in April 2010 will require lenders to consider borrowers for a short sale on their primary residence 30 days after missing two consecutive payments on a modified loan or after the borrower requests a short sale.

Treasury Plan

The Treasury Department would pay up to $1,500 for a homeowner to relocate, $1,000 to loan servicing companies that accept a sale and a maximum of $1,000 to help settle a second mortgage or subordinate lien. A lender must agree to release the borrower from all liability for repayment for the mortgage, under the Treasury plan.

In July, Wells Fargo began mailing notices to delinquent borrowers advising them that short sales might be an option to avoid foreclosure.

“When we determine that a loan is not affordable for the customer -- either because a modification was denied or failed - - we obtain the value of the property, run it through our loan decision tool and then send a letter to the customer advising them of our short sale program, including the short sale price we are willing to take on the property,” Debora Blume, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage said in an e-mail.

‘Pick a Pay Loans’

Wells Fargo is focusing on delinquent borrowers in Florida and California homeowners with “Pick-a-Pay” loans originated by Wachovia Corp., Blume said. Wells Fargo acquired Wachovia in December 2008 and owns the “Pick-a-Pay” loans outright, said J.K. Huey, the bank’s senior vice president overseeing short sales and bank-owned properties. That allows the company to approve a short sale without consulting investors or parties that can hold up transactions.

“Pick-a-Pay” mortgages have among the highest rates of negative equity, because borrowers could select their monthly payments, often paying less than the interest, with the difference added to the principal. That formula means that total loan debt was increasing at a time property values were falling.

Wells Fargo held $87.8 billion of such loans as of Sept. 30, down $7.5 billion from the end of last year. Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins said on an Oct. 21 earnings call that the bank is reducing the number of loans with “negative amortization potential.” As of the end of the third quarter, 26 percent of the loans in that portfolio now have minimum monthly payments that fully cover the interest due so that the total principal does not grow, up from 16 percent at the end of last year.

As of Sept. 30, Wells Fargo had modified 43,500, or 22 percent, of the distressed loans to reduce borrowers’ payments, Atkins said.

Reaching Out

JPMorgan doubled the number of staff trained to handle short sales after adding 5,000 people since Jan. 1 to deal with distressed mortgages, said Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for the New York-based bank’s home lending division.

Chase services 10.3 million mortgages worth $1.4 trillion, according to Kelly. Of its portfolio, Chase reported 422,000 loans more than 60 days delinquent, about one third of which were in loan modification programs, according to a Nov. 10 Treasury Department report on the Obama administration’s Making Home Affordable Program.

“We’re reaching out to people who are struggling with the Obama loan modifications or our own,” Kelly said. “Approaching customers is a very recent phenomenon.”

Bank of America, the nation’s largest loan servicer, had one of the lowest loan modification rates, with 14 percent of problem loans in trial workout plans as of Oct. 31, according to the Obama Administration.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank started a “cooperative short sales” program in October and may close its first short sale through the program this month, said Dave Sunlin, senior vice president for foreclosure and real estate management.

Pay-Option Mortgages

Many are borrowers with pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages issued by Countrywide Financial Corp., Sunlin said. BofA bought Countrywide, once the nation’s largest mortgage originator, for $4 billion in stock in 2008.

Short sales benefit a neighborhood because they clear out stagnant properties that may have an adverse effect on values, said Sean Shallis, a senior real estate strategist with Weichert Realtors in Hoboken, New Jersey. Shallis has one home with bank approval for a short sale and three others waiting approval on the same street in Jersey City with views of the Manhattan skyline.

“In every case we had multiple offers from people who had plenty of money to put down,” Shallis said. “Americans are out there still buying homes and trying to move it along.”

Cutting Losses

Short sales also help the bank, because foreclosed properties lose more value when they are vacant or a homeowner vandalizes a house on the way out, Sunlin said.

“We typically expect a 10 to 15 percent decrease of loss severity with a short sale,” Sunlin said.

Losses on prime loans going through the foreclosure process averaged 49 percent versus 34 percent for a short sale as of Oct. 1, according to a Nov. 10 report by Laurie S. Goodman, senior managing director of Amherst Securities Group LP. For subprime loans, losses averaged 73 percent for a foreclosure compared with 59 percent for a short sale, Amherst reported.

“The loss severity of short sales is lower but it’s not low,” Goodman said.

For a borrower’s credit history, a short sale is typically reported as “settled” and considered as severe as a foreclosure, said Maxine Sweet, vice president of public education for Experian PLC, the world’s largest credit-reporting company. The impact of a short sale on a credit score is similar to that of a foreclosure. It may drop a credit score of 780 to 620, according to Minneapolis-based FICO Corp.

Hardship Letter

For sellers like Drew Schlosser, who bought 10 properties in Florida as investments during the housing bubble, getting a short sale was a relief even if the process was difficult.

Schlosser said he had to provide Wells Fargo a hardship letter, demonstrating that his financial situation merited a short sale. He also had to provide pay stubs, bank account information and past tax returns. To avoid fraud, the bank also required evidence that the transaction was an arms-length sale and not to one of his relatives, he said.

“They don’t agree to do it because you’re upside down,” Schlosser said. “If they think you can pay for it they’re not going to let you out of it.”

To contact the reporters on this story: John Gittelsohn in New York at johngitt@bloomberg.net; Margaret Collins in New York at mcollins45@bloomberg.net.

Signs of the Bottom of Your Real Estate Market

by M. Anthony Carr
We've been watching a buyer's market for so long, we've almost forgotten how to see the signs of the building of a seller's market. Keep in mind, a seller's market slowly builds (over months) while a buyer's market can hit overnight.

While the National Association of Realtors announced sales of resale homes jumped more than 10 percent nationally in October 2009 over a year earlier – those numbers are not the numbers to watch while you're trying to find the bottom of your local market. Don't make a local decision based on national information.

The resale numbers have been up in markets all across the country for more than a year, we just never heard about it from the evening news, et. al., because your national news venues don't watch local markets. You should.

Most buyers and the media in general look to pricing to dictate that the bottom of the market has been hit. But before making that dictum, a buyer must first define what the bottom really is. Many would say, it's when prices hit the lowest they've been. True. That's part of the signs to watch.

And if price is you're only interest, then go ahead and wait for the bottom in pricing. Keep in mind, however, that everyone else is also looking for that number. When prices start to move up, they are moving up because the demand is starting to outpace supply and higher priced homes are starting to sell again, thus you may have missed the optimal time to purchase a house at a low price with someone else's money to help you with closing costs.

When the prices hit bottom (and the only way you can figure that out is the first month that prices start moving up, you've already missed the bottom), consumers are already starting to beat each other out for a shrinking inventory.

So, here are the indicators to watch to find the bottom:

1. Inventory: Watch for inventory to start dropping. When this happens, you've entered the bottom territory. Buyers start jumping on the bandwagon once there is so much inventory that prices have hit an acceptable low level.

2. Seller Subsidy: When sellers are giving back maximum amounts allowed by loan programs, you've hit the bottom. Some loan programs allow up to 6 percent of the sales price to be given back to the buyer at the settlement table from the seller for closing costs. Imagine, purchasing a house for $300,000 and getting $18,000 back from the seller for the buyer's closing costs – that's a sign of the bottom. (And this is most likely after getting 3 or 4 percent off the sales price – another $9,000 to $12,000).

3. Pricing: Now this is where everyone watches, when in reality it's the sign that the market has been climbing up from the bottom for several months. If you're going to track pricing as a bottom indicator, then start watching it from month to month, instead of year over year. Thus, when prices start moving up, say, from March to April to May to June – THEN you may have hit the bottom on pricing. A market can experience price increases month after month while still showing lower prices than a year before – thus the buyer, while waiting for signs that prices are moving up over last year, may have missed the bottom on pricing. By the time value starts surpassing year over year, the climb up has already begun.

4. Multiple offers: As buyers start competing for the best properties that have hit the lowest price, then you've found another sign of the bottom of the market.

5. Days on market: Once prices have hit bottom and buyers start gobbling up houses and start competing with each other – then you'll see the days on market begin dropping.

For some markets across the country, all of these indicators have already started showing signs of the bottom, such as Florida, Washington DC, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Las Angeles, and other metropolitan areas that were hit heavy by foreclosures.

Watching your local numbers is the only way to determine if you've hit the bottom of the market for your local real estate market.

Published: December 7, 2009

Existing-Home Sales Jump To Highest Level in 2-1/2 Years

Published: Monday, 23 Nov 2009 | 10:46 AM ET
By: Reuters

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in October at a faster-than-expected pace to the highest in more than 2-1/2 years as buyers rushed to take advantage of a popular tax credit, a survey showed Monday.

The National Association of Realtors said sales surged a record 10.1 percent month-over-month to an annual rate of 6.10 million units, the highest since February 2007, from a downwardly revised 5.54 million-unit pace in September.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected October sales to jump to a 5.70 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.57 million units in September. Compared to October last year, home sales were up by a record 23.5 percent. U.S. stock indexes extended gains on the data, while Treasury debt prices were little changed.

"Many buyers have been rushing to beat the deadline for first-time buyer credit that was scheduled to expire at the end of this month, and similarly robust sales may be occurring in November," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.

Distressed transactions accounted for 30 percent of sales last month and continued to weigh on house prices. First-time buyers made up a third of sales in October.

The national median home price fell 7.1 percent from October last year, the smallest decline in over a year, to $173,100. Homes in foreclosure typically sell for 15 to 20percent less than traditional homes.

"Existing home sales have already bottomed. Home prices are almost there. We are seeing a less of a decline in house values," said Yun.

The housing market is slowly mending after a three-year decline, which contributed to tipping the U.S. economy into its worst recession in seven decades. Housing construction contributed to economic growth in the third quarter for the first time since 2005.

Recovery is being supported by the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers, low mortgage rates and falling house prices. The government this month extended the incentive into next year and added a $6,500 credit for home owners buying a new residence. It had been due to expire on Nov. 30.

"The tax benefits going into the housing market are working, and that's a relief," said William Larkin, portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Boston. "Everything is about housing and jobs right now."

The improvement in October sales was broad-based, with sales of single-family homes, the biggest segment of the market, rising 9.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.33 million units, while condominium and co-ops increased 13.2 percent to a 770,000-unit rate.

Sales were up in all four regions of the country. Prices rose 1.1 percent in the Midwest, which didn't see the same boom as the rest of the country, while declining in the other three. The rise in the Midwest was the first price increase in any region since November 2008.

Analysts are cautiously hoping a sustained housing market recovery will help to improve the psychology of households, which has been shaken by rising unemployment.

While the economy resumed growing in the July-September period after four quarters of decline, sluggish consumer spending is seen slowing the momentum.

The inventory of existing homes for sale in October fell 3.7 percent to 3.57 million units from the previous month, NAR said. At October's sales pace, that represented a supply of 7.0 months, the lowest in 2-1/2 years, from September's revised 8.0 months.

Copyright 2009 Reuters.

Low Interest Rates Spur Refinancing, Buying Interest

by Broderick Perkins

If you purchased a home a year ago and have the equity and creditworthiness to swing it, a refinance today could save you hundreds of dollars a month.

Or, if you are in the market to buy a home, interest rates will make for a more affordable deal.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for Nov. 12 put the average fixed interest rate for 30-year conforming mortgages at 4.91 percent.

Last year at the same time, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.14 percent.

"Keeping rates at historically low levels for a sustained period of time has to remain a cornerstone of Fed policy until the economy gets back on track," said Nancy Osborne, chief operating officer of Erate.com.

On a $300,000 mortgage the principle and interest payment at today's average rate would be about $1,594, compared to $1,825 a year ago, according to Erate's calculators.

That's a monthly savings of $231. Put another way, a year's worth of the savings -- $2,772 -- amounts to almost two mortgage payments on a $300,000 mortgage at today's average rate.

Both home buyers and owners who want to refinance may have some time yet to shop around and dicker for the best interest rate deal.

"I don't suspect rates will begin to rise until we see at least three consecutive months of solid employment growth," Osborne said.

Freddie Mac also said the 15-year FRM averaged 4.36 percent, down from 5.81 percent a year ago.

Adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs)

The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.29 percent this week, down from 5.98 percent a year ago. The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.46 percent, down from 5.33 percent in 2009 at this time.

Published: November 19, 2009

Congress Poised to Keep Homebuyers’ Tax Credit

By JACKIE CALMES
Published: November 3, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Senate and House are poised to agree on a compromise measure to extend unemployment benefits that also would expand a popular $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers, despite a recent government report on extensive mistakes and suspected fraud in the program.

The Senate might pass its version as early as Wednesday, and aides to Congressional leaders say the House could accept it this week, sending the bill to President Obama to sign into law. After weeks of partisan delay in the Senate, Democrats are eager to show progress before Friday, when the October jobless report is again expected to show high unemployment.

The homebuyers’ credit — enacted last year, expanded this year and scheduled to expire Nov. 30 — would be extended to cover homes under contract by April 30. Also, it no longer would be limited to first-time buyers; people who have owned a home for at least five years could get a $6,500 credit on a new residence. Income limits for eligibility would be raised, making many more people qualify.

Extending and expanding the credit would cost an estimated $11 billion, on top of the $10 billion spent so far. It would be a big victory for the housing and real estate lobby and for the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, who faces a tough re-election race next year in the state with the most claims for the credit per capita.

Critics complain that most of the credits go to taxpayers who would have bought their homes anyway, which even the industry acknowledges. Also, a Congressional subcommittee released a Treasury Department report last month about suspected criminal and civil abuses of the program.

Government officials testified, however, that many of the problems may be due to confusion among taxpayers and the Internal Revenue Service about the overlapping 2008 and 2009 versions of the tax credit. With Congress likely to change the eligibility provision again, the new measure could present further administrative problems for the I.R.S., although the measure does include several new safeguards.

“It’s not unreasonable to think that this is going to provide some further challenges for them, both in terms of implementing a third version of it and in terms of ensuring taxpayers’ compliance,” said James R. White, director of tax issues for the Government Accountability Office.

The Treasury Department report said that as of Sept. 30, the I.R.S. had identified 167 suspected criminal schemes and was examining nearly 107,000 cases of potential civil violations.

The first person to be convicted of defrauding the tax credit program was a tax preparer in Jacksonville, Fla., who was sentenced last month to 30 months in prison. According to the Justice Department, he claimed the credit for ineligible clients, many of whom were unsuspecting, and electronically paid himself $1,000 of the credit’s value each time.

Investigators found that more than 500 claimants of the tax credit nationwide were minors as young as 4, so the new measure will require applicants to be at least 18. Homes cannot be acquired from relatives, and taxpayers must submit a settlement statement as proof of purchase, though officials acknowledge that could be a problem for those who file tax returns electronically.

While real estate groups and some economists say the credit has helped stabilize the housing market, critics say it is too costly a subsidy when low interest rates and home prices are incentives enough for most.

Of the 1.4 million claimants of the credit, fewer than a third — about 350,000 to 400,000 — are believed to have bought their homes because of the credit, according to independent and industry-affiliated economists.

Under the new legislation, individuals with income up to $125,000 a year and couples earning up to $225,000 would be eligible. The current income limits are $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. Under both the House and Senate versions, smaller amounts are available to people of slightly higher incomes until the credit phases out.

The expanded homebuyers’ tax credit was attached to a bill intended to extend unemployment compensation for up to 20 weeks for people who have been out of work for long periods. Another amendment would sweeten a tax break for businesses with net operating losses in 2008 and 2009.

Survey: Most economists see recovery beginning

By Mae Anderson
The Associated Press

New York » More than 80 percent of economists believe the recession is over and an expansion has begun, but they expect the recovery will be slow as worries over unemployment and high federal debt persist.

That consensus comes from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics released Monday.

"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," said NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.

The forecasters upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, but cautioned that unemployment rates and the federal deficit are expected to remain high through the next year. Forecasters now expect the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, to advance at a 2.9 percent pace in the second half of the year, after falling for four straight quarters for the first time on records dating to 1947. They expect a 3 percent gain in 2010.

Still, the federal deficit has ballooned and the jobless rate is expected to lag behind, as employers remain cautious.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September from 9.7 percent, the Labor Department said earlier this month, the highest point in 26 years.

Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise, to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year, before edging down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010.

The recession, the worst since the 1930s, has eliminated a net total of 7.2 million jobs. More job cuts were announced last week. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., which makes industrial and scientific equipment, said it will close a plant in Dubuque, Iowa, next year, costing 350 jobs.

Worries about unemployment are likely to continue to constrain household spending. Personal consumption spending likely began rising in the second half of this year, but is expected to remain low in 2010. Still, Americans aren't expected to save as much as they have in past decades. The savings rate is expected to be above the 2 percent average of the past four years, but below the 9 percent average in the 1970s and 1980s.

The housing recovery is one bright spot. Forecasters expect 2010 to be the first year since 2005 that the housing sector will contribute to overall growth. Home prices are expected to rise 2 percent in 2010, but panelists do not believe that will stifle the housing recovery.

Inflation is expected to remain low due to the weak labor market and other factors. Thus, the NABE panel -- which consists of 44 economists surveyed Sept. 2 through Sept. 24 -- expects the federal funds rate to remain at its current record low near zero until late next spring, before a gradual rise begins.

"The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," said Reaser.

Home-buying incentives available, but time is short

Economy » The two programs are intended to help spur the sale of houses.

By Lesley Mitchell
The Salt Lake Tribune

Homebuyers along the Wasatch Front are racing to meet a deadline for purchasing incentives that expire on Nov. 30.

The larger of the two incentives is an $8,000 federal income tax credit geared toward first-time buyers of new or existing homes, although anyone who hasn't owned a home in the past three years is eligible. Utah also is offering a $4,000 grant for buyers of newly built homes. Both state and federal officials stress that there is no leeway on the deadlines for the incentives, which are aimed at boosting the sagging economy and real estate sector.

"You could be a day late and $8,000 short," said IRS spokesman Bill Brunson.

Salt Lake City Realtor DeAnna Dipo is telling prospective buyers who are interested in either incentive they probably are going to need to be under contract to buy a home no later than the end of October to allow for sufficient time for loan underwriting and to beat the Nov. 30 deadline to close.

"It's definitely getting people off the fence," said Ryan Kirkham, president of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. "There's no question that it's having a positive effect on home sales right now." Further motivating buyers are super-low mortgage rates of about 5 percent or even below 5 percent.

"A lot of people realize that rates aren't always going to be this low," Kirkham said.

First-time buyer Saxony Sharkey qualified this summer for a mortgage at 5.25 percent to purchase an existing home in West Jordan. Like other buyers, she first heard about the federal home-buying incentive last year. But last year, the incentive was a $7,500 no-interest loan that had to be repaid.

Only this year, when the government started offering an $8,000 tax credit -- it does not have to be repaid if the home remains a primary residence for at least 36 months -- did she make her move.

"I thought, this is something I didn't want to pass it up," she said.

The state incentive, dubbed "Home Run 2," provides $4,000 grants to buyers who meet certain criteria and buy new construction. It follows the original Home Run program, which provided $6,000 grants to new home buyers. That program ended in June after all the funds were exhausted and 1,652 grants had been issued.

Today, there's about 1,400 grants available out of 1,950 when the program debuted on Sept. 4.

"The interest level has been very high," said Grant Whitaker, president and CEO of the Utah Housing Corp., which is administering the program.

Clark Ivory, who lobbied the state to create the grant program, said his home-building company had 60 sales in September, up from 47 in September 2008.

Cristy and Luis Duran, who are renting, didn't think they could afford to buy. But after a local real estate agent told them about the incentives, they went to a mortgage lender to see if they could qualify to buy a townhome.

They did qualify, and are using the $4,000 state incentive toward their down payment. Once they close in a few weeks, they will file an amended return to get the $8,000 federal incentive, which they plan to use to finish their basement.

"Without this money, we would not have been able to buy this home," Cristy Duran said.

Sharkey said she elected to amend her 2008 tax return after she bought her home this summer, and expects to get the tax credit money sometime over the holidays. Others are waiting to file for the credit in early 2010 when they file their 2009 return. Half of Sharkey's $8,000 was earmarked for some upgrades; the other half is destined for her saving account.

"I wanted to use some of its on upgrades," she said. "But based on the way things are going right now [with the economy], I thought it would be good [to put] half of it in savings."

lesley@sltrib.com

Utah execs more upbeat about state's economy

After two years of growing pessimism about the economy, some Utah business leaders are saying that the worst of the recession may be over.

Optimism among executives about the futures of their companies increased in the opening three months of 2009 for the first time since the fourth quarter 2006, according to the bank's latest quarterly forecast of the economy, released Tuesday.

"It's the first time I've seen attitudes look more upbeat, to see hope for the future, rather than a steady decline," said Julie Olsen, an analyst for Dan Jones and Associates, the Salt Lake City market research firm that constructed the forecast for Zions.

Olsen said it's too soon to call the upswing the start of a recovery from the worst recession gripping Utah since the 1930s. But "at least during this quarter we are willing to say that the executives in this survey see [the economy] improving."

The level of optimism hardly compares to when Zions established its quarterly report in the second quarter 2006, when Utah's economy was booming. Back then 90 percent of the executives who took part were bullish on their businesses, compared with 65 percent today.

In hindsight, second quarter 2006 turned out to be the survey's high point. Except for small increases in the fourth quarters of 2006 and 2007, optimism fell steadily until the first quarter 2009, and business leaders hope the turnaround sticks.

"We have seen an uptick in demand, which is very good," said Dan England, chairman of Salt Lake City-based trucking giant C.R. England Inc. "We are not going to be too aggressive on our predictions, but we are hoping and thinking that things may be improving a little bit."

The Zions forecast is based on a survey of 337 executives from April 2 through April 30. Olsen said a "notable" number of executives believe their companies' "health" will improve in the second quarter ending June 30. Forty-four percent sense better times ahead, compared with just 22 percent in the last three months of 2008.

Similarly, more executives expect their companies to maintain or boost spending on capital projects and add employees during the quarter, she said. Fifty-seven percent of executives in the statewide survey anticipate spending as much or more on capital expenditures, compared with 41 percent in the fourth quarter.

The executives showed more inclination to hire additional workers in the second quarter. Twenty-six percent said their work forces would increase somewhat or greatly, up from 17 percent who in the first quarter said their payrolls probably would increase.

"What you have is some optimism that there are parameters to the recession," said Mark Knold senior economist at the state Department of Workforce Services.

"Before, it just felt like it was in a free fall, like nobody knew where it was going to go [or] what it would take to get their hands around it.

"What's changed now is there is a feeling that a bottom is somewhere close, and some of the indicators may have seen their deepest day," he said.

Knold doesn't think Utah is out of the woods, though. Initial claims for unemployment benefits are still hovering around 3,000 per week, three times greater than normal levels.

"I'd like to see them trending below 2,000" before calling a bottom to the labor market, he said.

By Paul Beebe
The Salt Lake Tribune
Updated: 05/26/2009 08:54:56 PM MDT

National papers put spotlight on Salt Lake City

May 18th, 2009 @ 4:16pm
By Amanda Butterfield

SALT LAKE CITY -- Two of the most-read newspapers in the country have recently published lengthy articles about Utah, and they're very positive. That has community leaders very excited.

"National coverage is great. It gives a lot of creditability for what we're doing here across Salt Lake," said Jason Mathis, executive director of the Downtown Alliance.

Mathis couldn't be happier with the recent articles in USA Today and the New York Times. The USA Today article notes what a great place Salt Lake is to have a second home and how there's so much so do that's all close by for visitors.

"Utah has a unique connection of urban city center and mountain resorts. Nobody else has that," Mathis said.

The New York Times article goes into detail about Salt Lake's construction of the City Creek project. At a time when other building projects across the country are at a standstill, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is on schedule reviving downtown.

"We've got great construction going with more the 1,000 construction workers in the downtown area every day. We have dozens of small businesses that have opened up in the past month," Mathis said.

He says it's important to note, because the construction workers are from all over the valley, the money being made doesn't just stay downtown. "The money generated downtown goes throughout the entire region," he said.

Whether you were born and raised in Utah or recently moved to the state, Mathis says these articles prove Utahns have a lot to be proud of. "We take living here for granted, but people who come from outside, they see the mountains, the awesome city, and they're floored. This is really a remarkable place to live," he said.

Even the magazine Men's Fitness magazine is taking notice of Salt Lake City. In February, Salt Lake was named the nation's fittest city.

Economists React: ‘Plunge Is Over’ in Existing-Home Sales

Economists and others weigh in on the decline in existing-home sales.

Home sales have stabilized following the post-Lehmans plunge and remain above January’s trough of 4,490,000. March’s fall is probably just noise rather than a renewed downward trend. Admittedly, around 50% of sales are now related to distressed properties, which is hardly a sign of strength.

But at least these sales are helping to reduce the inventory overhang… Overall, with the housing market having led the economy into the recession, it is no surprise that it might be the first sector to stabilise. Nonetheless, we suspect that prices have yet to reach their floor. –Paul Dales, Capital Economics

This is a bit disappointing but the big picture is still clear; the plunge in sales following the Lehman blowup is over. Unfortunately … prices will continue to fall rapidly for the foreseeable future, though at least the rate of decline should not get any worse. The floor for prices is probably a late 2010 story. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

The report was very disappointing, particularly given the broad-based nature of the declines… With the backdrop for U.S. households continuing to deteriorate on account of the worsening labor market conditions and weakening economy, we expect the housing market correction to continue well into this year. Nevertheless, the pace of decline is likely to ease as improved housing affordability conditions begin to spur housing demand. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities

The weaker-than-expected result does not change the broad trend in sales, however, which continues to point to a tenuous stabilization… Sales in the western United States, where foreclosure activity is most prevalent, show a distinctly different pattern than those in other regions. Total existing sales (single family sales plus condos and co-ops) are up 19% year-to-year in the West… The improvement in sales in the Western region is an encouraging sign that discounted prices, record low mortgage rates and various tax incentives are stimulating new demand. –Nomura Global Economics

Although home resales were down in March, one can make a reasonable argument that resales are bottoming (albeit as a result of steep cuts in price as distressed and foreclosure sales make up a large share of existing home sales) as the average level of sales in the first quarter was similar to the fourth quarter’s average. –RDQ Economics

After dropping by 11% in October and November combined, likely reflecting the fallout from the financial meltdown in September, resales have held between 4.49 million and 4.74 million units, pointing to some stabilization in housing demand. With housing affordability rising dramatically thanks to lower prices and lower mortgage rates, demand from first-time homebuyers seems to be on the rise and is clearly supporting the market.

Indeed, the NAR pointed out that first-time buyers accounted for just over half of all existing home sales in March. Still, first-time buyers typically purchase at the lower end of the market, which could help to explain why half of all resales last month were distressed properties. –Omair Sharif, RBS

Compiled by Phil Izzo
Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal.

Utah may see relatively fast economic recovery

While tied to outside influences more than ever and facing slipping economic statistics, Utah nonetheless will fare better than many states when emerging from the economic downturn, the chief economist in the Governor's Office said Tuesday.

Speaking Wednesday at the Utah Foundation's annual meeting, Juliette Tennert said Utah's economy is "more broadly integrated" with the national and global economy than ever before and thus Utah's performance will depend on what happens at those levels. But several factors — unique demographics and industry diversity among them — work in Utah's favor for recovery, she said.

"We have one of the most diverse economies in the nation," Tennert said. "That means that while we're certainly impacted by the national contraction, we'll recover quicker than many other states."

Tennert is predicting Utah's unemployment rate to pass 6.5 percent in 2010 although still be relatively low when compared to most other states and the national prediction of above 9 percent. Utah employment will move from slight growth to a 2.5 percent decline in 2009 and flatten in 2010. "This will be the worst decline since the 1950s; however, it will not be as bad as the 3-plus decline that's expected at the national level," Tennert said.

"If not for the infusion of cash (from the federal economic stimulus package), I expect that this picture would be even grimmer," Tennert said. "While the outlook over the next year is certainly weak, we should not forget about the inherent strength and durability of Utah's economy. We are well-positioned to manage the downturn, and we really should be grateful for those dynamics that I mentioned that will help keep Utah's downturn less severe and help us to recover quicker than in many other states."

Economic woes led the Legislature to budget cuts of $250 million and later $350 million. Senate Majority Assistant Whip Greg Bell, R-Fruit Heights, described those cuts as "truly Draconian" but also "done with as much precision as possible."

Federal stimulus funds "effectively hide" effects of budget cuts in 2010, but the full effects will be seen in 2011, he said.

"We don't live in a vacuum, and I think that's going to be the message today, that Utah is doing extraordinarily well in so many regards and though our ship seems to sail fairly well, we are getting a lot of backwash from national and international conditions over which we have no control," Bell said. "So for a while it seemed some were immune and now it seems no one is, and we're all going to have to live with the difficult circumstances and conditions imposed upon us by these challenging times."

Natalie Gochnour, chief operating officer at the Salt Lake Chamber, said long-term economic success for Utah can be tied to globalization efforts, including continued funding and a building to house the World Trade Center Utah and becoming a "more welcoming" state. "We live in a post-American world, period," she said. Improving education and air quality and developing energy security were among her other suggestions.



By Brice Wallace
Deseret News
Published: Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Study: Utah poised to rebound from recession quickly

SALT LAKE CITY -- A new study shows Utah may be poised to recover from the recession more quickly than most states. The reason, according to the conservative authors, is Utah's business-friendly environment.

This is a conservative study with a lot of praise for Utah's conservative Legislature and its policies, but the forecast is a pragmatic look at what businesses want and what Utah has.

Poised to attract more high-tech companies, more in research and medicine, in recreation, tourism and energy; Utah may have what it takes to climb out of the recession first.

"We do have a very attractive environment for business, and it's been stable," said Sen. Wayne Niederhauser, R-Sandy.

Niederhauser is one of the legislators cited in the study "Rich States, Poor States." Written on behalf of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, it claims Utah is one of the states that has advantages over other states.

One of the advantages comes in the area of tax policy, specifically income tax reform. Utah also has less government regulation and involvement is a plus for businesses.

Gov. Jon Huntsman is also working to promote Utah as a future renewable energy hub. Together, it could add up to an even more prosperous future for Utah.

"There probably is not another state in America right now with better practices, in terms of attracting, building and promulgating renewable energy," Huntsman said.

At the same time, Utah has a chance to lead the way in using prosperity to create a better life for people. It can do so in many ways. One example is in being smart about health care reform.

"We're saying it's great the state is embarking on health system reform. Let's make sure that, at the end of the day, those reforms result in predictable costs for businesses and affordable costs for employees so they can succeed on the job," said Judi Hilman, with the Utah Health Policy Project.

By comparison, states like California and New York have been raising taxes steadily. That has led to a very difficult downward spiral for those states.

By Richard Piatt
KSL-Salt lake City, Utah

Waiting for gov's signature on $6,000 grant bill

We're getting lots of questions about the $6,000 "Home Run" grant program. Utah Housing says they are not releasing any more information about the program until the governor signs the billl.

They say, in the meantime, people should start house shopping and talking with their lender. When the program is implemented, the lender will be the key link to getting the grant. We'll keep you posted here with any new developments on the program.

Ut Assoc Realtors's Notes

UTAH'S NEW $6,000 GRANT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION - THIS IS HUGE, DON'T WAIT - PLEASE READ AND CONTACT ME!

I'm told that this can be used for FHA and Conventional financing and is not limited to first time home owners. However, this is only good for spec homes and new construction. Ill keep you posted once I have more information on getting the money.

Most of you have now heard about the State's effort to boost home
sales by passing HB-0206 bill aimed at the New Construction industry.
This bill will set aside $10 Million dollars of the Federal Stimulus money for the home buyer grants. Theoretically, this would provide grants to about 1,600 purchasers.

I have already been on the phone with key people finding out the specifics of the program and am happy to share the following information with you.


FACTS:
1. As of 12:30PM today, the bill has actually NOT been signed by the governor yet. But it is expected to be signed by end of day.
2. The program will be administered by the Utah Housing Corporation (www.utahhousingcorp.org
- (801) 902-8200 Darlene)
3. Lenders wishing to participate in the program must register with UHC even if they have been registered in the past for a divverent program.
4. Criteria for the loans are simple. 1) Income restriction of no more than $75K individual or $150K couple, 2) Loan must be 30 Year Fixed of any type (FHA or Conv), and 3) Must reside in residence for 3 Years. Final details will be listed on their site as soon as the governor signs the bill.
5. New Construction is defined as a home that has NEVER been lived in. No matter how long it has sat on the market.
6) It only takes about 48-hours to get approved for the Grant.
7) The fund will be reserved for 30 Days.
8) Unfinished homes qualify as long as you can get a 30-year Fixed loan.

I have signed up to receive the official notification once it is posted on the UHC web site which will mark the official start-up of the program.

STEVE JACKSON
801-243-8202
sjackson@signaturegrouputah.com
www.signaturegrouputah.com/sjackson
http://realtor4utah.blogspot.com

Real Estate Outlook: Housing Positioned For Growth

No economist has more information at his or her disposal than Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and what he told Congress last week should be encouraging news for anyone interested in real estate: The recession that has gripped the country painfully for 18 months will "end" later this year - moving us into positive economic growth.

In the meantime, housing may be better positioned than other major industries. That's because there appears to be significant interest in the improved $8.000, nonrepayable home buyer tax credit plus a historically-favorable combination of low interest rates and rolled-back home prices.

In a new research report, the National Association of Home Builders found that affordability of houses is now at its best level in years. The association's "Housing Opportunity Index" -- which measures the percentage of homes sold in local markets around the country that are affordable to families earning area median incomes -- hit a near-record 62.4 percent in the most recent quarter for which data is available.

By contrast a year earlier, the index was at 47, meaning that less than half of households could afford to buy a median priced home. During the boom years it was even worse.

Although rising unemployment is a sobering counter-trend, the improvement in affordability may be setting the stage for a real estate rebound -- even if monthly ebbs and flows in sales look gloomy in the first quarter of the year .

Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-5 percent range for 30-year fixed rate loans. Fifteen year rates are at 4.7 percent.

While average prices of homes continue to decline on a national basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, dozens of local markets -- most of them ignored by widely-publicized surveys such as Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index -- continue to show net positive selling price performance.

You don't hear about these positives because these areas were lower profile during the boom, never experienced a bust, and are just not on the New York radar screens.

But they're for real, and their moderate, sensible growth patterns may be where we're headed in real estate this year.

by Kenneth R. Harne,y Published: March 3, 2009

Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation.

First Time Homebuyer Credit...A Simple Explanation

First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit: 6 Things to Know

While the proposed $15,000 home-buyer tax credit died in negotiations between the House and the Senate, the $787 billion stimulus bill that President Barack Obama signed into law Tuesday includes a similar--albeit smaller--measure designed to help revive the real estate market. Here are six things you need to know about the reshly-enacted $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

1. Eight grand, new buyers: The tax credit included in the economic stimulus legislation is much narrower than the $15,000 proposal. This credit is equivalent to 10 percent of the purchase price of the home--although it's capped at $8,000--and applies only to first-time home buyers and principal residences. But unlike an earlier $7,500 home buyer tax credit, this one does not have to be repaid.

2. First time buyers defined: For the purpose of this legislation, a "first-time home buyer" is someone who hasn't owned a principal residence for three years before buying a house. (The date of purchase is considered the day that the title is transferred.) That means if you've owned a vacation home--but not a principal residence--within the past three years, you would still qualify for the credit.

3. 2009 buyers only: Only those who purchase a home on or after January 1 and before December 1, 2009 are eligible for the credit. Anyone who bought a home last year won't be able to take advantage of it.

4. Income limits: The tax credit is subject to income limitations. Single buyers need a modified adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less to qualify for the full credit, that's $150,000 for married couples. Those earning more than these thresholds may be eligible for reduced credits.

5. Refundable: Because the tax credit is "refundable," qualified buyers can take advantage of it even if they don't have much tax liability.

6. Recapture: Buyers have to own the home for at least three years in order to capitalize on the credit. If they sell the home before then, they will have to return the credit to the government. (Exceptions will be made in certain cases, such as death or divorce.)

Copyright © 2009 U.S.News & World Report, Luke Mullins

Obama sets aside $75 billion to slow foreclosures

Program would seek to bring mortgage payments down to 31% of income

By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:38 p.m. EST Feb. 18, 2009

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The White House unveiled a plan Wednesday to help 9 million "at risk" homeowners modify their mortgages, committing $75 billion of taxpayer money to back the initiative.

The plan contains two separate programs. One program is aimed at 4 million to 5 million homeowners struggling with loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to help them refinance their mortgages through the two institutions.

A separate program would potentially help 3 million to 4 million additional homeowners by allowing them to modify their mortgages to lower monthly interest rates through any participating lender. Under this plan, the lender would voluntarily lower the interest rate, and the government would provide subsidies to the lender.

"The plan I'm announcing focuses on rescuing families who have played by the rules and acted responsibly: by refinancing loans for millions of families in traditional mortgages who are underwater or close to it; by modifying loans for families stuck in subprime mortgages they can't afford as a result of skyrocketing interest rates or personal misfortune; and by taking broader steps to keep mortgage rates low so that families can secure loans with affordable monthly payments," President Barack Obama said.

Homeowners that have Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans, who are having a difficult time refinancing and owe more than 80% of the value of their homes, would be eligible to refinance with this program. Even if homeowners with Fannie or Freddie loans have negative equity on their mortgages, they can qualify for this refinancing program. The program would only help homeowners occupying the property, not individuals who own property as investors.

To help fund the program, the Treasury Department is hiking an existing funding commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It will buy $200 billion of Fannie and Freddie preferred stock, up from its previously preferred stock purchase agreement of $100 billion. It also will buy more mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, raising the total to $900 billion, up from $850 billion previously.

Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee more than 30 million mortgages, or almost 60% of all single-family loans, according to recent estimates.

Under the $75 billion modification program involving government subsidies to lenders, the lenders will be responsible for bringing down interest rates so that a borrower's monthly mortgage payment is no more than 38% of pretax income. After that, the government program would match the amount reduced by the lender to bring a homeowner's payments down to 31% of pretax income.

Should a lender have a difficult time getting a homeowner's payment down to 31% of pretax income by lowering its interest rates, it can also lower the principal owed on the mortgage and take advantage of government assistance.

As part of the $75 billion initiative, servicers will receive $1,000 for each successful modification, as well as additional government funding for each month the borrower stays current on its loan. Homeowners can also receive $1,000 a year for five years as part of the program, as long as they stay current on their loan payments.

The program also provides additional incentives to lenders who modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind. The program takes effect March 4.

Loan servicers owned by financial institutions that receive government assistance from the remaining funds in the bank bailout bill would be required to implement "loan modification plans" based on Treasury guidance.

Henry Sommer, director at the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, said he believes the incentives should encourage servicers to participate in the program. However, he added that even with the program, mortgage servicers may not have the staffing and resources to adjust a critical mass of troubled mortgages.

"It puts servicers in a better position to participate, but I still worry about staffing," Sommer
commented.

Obama traveled to a hard-hit Arizona community Wednesday to announce details of the program. He and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan discussed their plan in Mesa, Ariz., a suburb of Phoenix that has been reeling from the housing-industry meltdown and economic slowdown.

Mesa -- Arizona's third-largest city -- saw its median home price fall 35% over the past 12 months to $140,000 in January. More than 300 families lost their homes to foreclosure there in January.

Funding

For the $75 billion program, $50 billion will come from the remaining $350 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program funds, and $25 billion will come from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to a Treasury official.

Obama plans to package this approach within a larger housing bill that lets bankruptcy judges alter mortgages and lower interest rates for troubled homeowners. Such a provision was approved by the House Judiciary Committee last month. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said "Congress stands ready" to act on the committee's legislation.

Sommer said bankruptcy-judge authority would be the only way to provide serious help to troubled homeowners that have second loans. "These second lien loans were very prevalent in many problematic markets."

Citigroup Inc. has endorsed this approach, though other banks have yet to do so.
The new lower interest rate must be kept in place for five years. Leif Thomsen, chief executive of Boston-based mortgage lender Mortgage Master, said he believes that the government should make those lower interest rates permanent, but five years is better than a shorter period.
"A five-year modification is better than a six-month modification," he commented.

Sommer also said he believed the Treasury's time frame was set because government officials are hoping the financial system will stabilize by then.

The program also requires quarterly meetings to monitor the program among the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Housing and Urban Development Department and the Federal Reserve.

In another smaller, separate program to be announced Wednesday, funding of $1.5 billion would be provided to help renters displaced by foreclosure to relocate and $2 billion to stabilize neighborhoods that are experiencing high levels of foreclosure.

The Obama mortgage plan
Below is a list of key elements of the plan outlined Wednesday by President Obama that aims to aid as many as 9 million households in fending off foreclosures:

*Allows 4 million–5 million homeowners to refinance via government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

*Establishes $75 billion fund to reduce homeowners' monthly payments.

*Develops uniform rules for loan modifications across the mortgage industry.

*Bolsters Fannie and Freddie by buying more of their shares.

*Allows Fannie and Freddie to hold $900 billion in mortgage-backed securities — a $50 billion increase.


Ronald D. Orol is a MarketWatch reporter, based in Washington.

WHY TO BUY A HOME NOW

Why to Buy a Home Now

by Phoebe Chongchua

If you're renting and wondering if you should buy a home, consider what bestselling author, David Bach, says, "The average homeowner is worth 35 times more than the average renter."

He advises renters to take action immediately and start saving part of their paycheck every month to help accumulate a down payment. He also encourages renters to borrow 10-20 percent less than what the bank is willing to lend; that way they're only buying as much home as they can afford.


The longer you rent, the longer it may take you to eventually get into homeownership. If the market conditions have scared you, perhaps you're not looking at the other side of the coin. Owning a home becomes part of your investment portfolio, provides tax benefits, allows you to build equity (it still exists), and, if you buy now, you may get an excellent deal.

According to a MarketWatch news article, buying a home now can provide some real negotiating power to request improvements, price reductions, help with closing costs, and more. "People can get a lot of what they need and almost all of what they want today," said Jay Papasan, one of the authors of "Your First Home".

While poor market conditions have created a troubling situation for some homeowners, the downturn has made the buying market ripe for others. The affordability of homes is better than ever. The National Association of Realtors' housing affordability index concluded that homes in December of 2008 were more affordable than at any other point since 1970 (the start of the index). And with numerous foreclosures on the market and prices dropping in many areas, now is a good time to buy. But in order to make your purchase profitable, here are some things you should consider.

How long will you be in the home? Some experts advise that if you are planning to move within a year, buying may not be the best option because of the expenses associated with moving. However, if you're searching for a place to live for, at least, several years, buying now could be a good choice for you.

How much you can afford. Don't let tighter lending regulations scare you off from making a purchase. Instead, understand what you truly can afford. Don't get caught up in buying too much home. In fact, these days, the trend is moving toward smaller homes -- simpler living.

Mortgage rates drop to historical low. How much home you can afford is affected by mortgage interest rates that, right now, are highly appealing. Good credit, documenting your income, and a substantial down payment will make you a better candidate for the better mortgage rates.

Freedom to choose. Now, unlike several years ago, the market has a large inventory in many areas. The market time to sell a home has increased which creates a large inventory of homes, everything including new, existing, and foreclosures. Buyers can peruse the market and have the freedom to select the home they really want. If you're interest is in a new home, know that many developers are getting more competitive with their pricing because they also have taken a hit by the ailing economy.

Quality of life. Buying a home can create a higher quality of life, giving you pride of homeownership, and something to enjoy improving and developing over the years.

Tax credit benefit. Last summer, the federal government started providing up to a $7,500 tax credit to buyers who have not owned a home in at least three years; the tax credit must be repaid within 15 years. But that figure may increase. The National Home Builders Association and National Association of Realtors are pushing for more significant help for all home buyers -- not just those who are buying for the first time. The Senate, as part of a stimulus package, this month approved a temporary new tax credit to be applied to homebuyers' tax bills. The credit would give buyers 10 percent of the purchase price of any home, up to $15,000. Alan Zibel of the Associated Press writes, "Anyone who buys a home within a year of the bill's signature would qualify. To deter speculators, buyers must occupy the house as their main residence for at least two years." At the time of this writing, the stimulus package had not yet gone to the White House.

Anyone Ready For The Stimulus Bill???

Key lawmakers reach deal on $789B stimulus bill.

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON – Moving with lightning speed, key lawmakers announced agreement Wednesday on a $789 billion economic stimulus measure designed to create millions of jobs in a nation reeling from recession. President Barack Obama could sign the bill within days..
"The middle ground we've reached creates more jobs than the original Senate bill and costs less than the original House bill," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, one of the participants in an exhausting and frenzied round of bargaining.
The bill includes help for victims of the recession in the form of unemployment benefits, food stamps, health coverage and more, as well as billions for states that face the prospect of making deep cuts in their own programs.
It also preserves Obama's signature tax cut — a break for millions of lower and middle income taxpayers, including those who don't earn enough to pay income taxes.
Officials had said previously that one of the final issues to be settled was money for school modernization, a priority of Pelosi as well as Obama and one on which they differed with Collins and other moderates whose votes will be essential for final Senate approval.
It was not immediately clear when final votes in the two houses would occur. A House vote was possible as early as Thursday, with the Senate to follow before lawmakers begin a scheduled weeklong vacation.
There was no immediate reaction from the White House, but the president's chief of staff and other aides were intimately involved in the negotiations that led to the agreement.
Stocks moved higher in the moments after Reid stepped to the microphone just outside the Senate chamber.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, predicted the bill "will be the beginning of the turnaround for the American economy."
Reid said the legislation would create 3.5 million jobs.
Obama has been campaigning energetically for the legislation in recent days, saying it was essential to avoid having the worst economic crisis in a generation turn into a catastrophe.
As if to underscore the urgency, he said a few hours before the agreement was announced that machinery giant Caterpillar Inc. plans to rescind some of the 22,000 layoffs the firm recently announced — once the stimulus is signed into law.
The real decisions were made in Capitol office suites where Pelosi, Reid and other key lawmakers, often joined by White House officials and their own aides, worked late Tuesday night and picked up again in the morning.
Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., one of the negotiators, earlier announced agreement to hold the bill to $789 billion, tens of billions below the cost of both the House and Senate bills that had cleared in recent days, and that 35 percent of the total would be in the form of tax cuts.
The reductions in the bill's size caused grumbles among liberal Democrats, who described them as a concession to the moderates, particularly Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., who are under pressure from conservative Republicans to hold down spending.
The principal components of the emerging measure included money to help victims of the recession, as much as $44 billion in aid for states, which face cuts of their own as a result of lower tax receipts, and the president's proposed tax cut for lower and middle-income wage earners.
Negotiators tentatively agreed to include a one-time payment to recipients of Social Security, Supplemental Security Income and veterans' pensions and disability. While the size of the checks remained unsettled, officials said it would be less than the $300 originally proposed by the Senate.
Officials said there was agreement to accept the White House's call to provide the tax break to workers who pay Social Security taxes but do not earn enough to owe income taxes, although it was possible the amount would be scaled back somewhat. The president sought $500 for individuals and $1,000 for couples.
Working to accommodate the new, lower overall limit of the bill, negotiators effectively wiped out a Senate-passed provision for a new $15,000 tax credit to defray the cost of buying a home, these officials said. The agreement would allow taxpayers to deduct the sales tax paid on new car purchases, but not the interest on loans for the same vehicles.
It also appeared a compromise was in the works on the administration's demand for school construction funds.
Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, told reporters that $6 billion would be set aside, and officials said it could be spent only on repair and modernization work, a limitation designed to appease the moderates.
But officials said House Democrats were holding out for as much as $9 billion.
With numerous demands for the funds in the bill, lawmakers worked to satisfy competing demands.
A Senate-passed provision to give $10 billion to the National Institutes of Health for research — a favorite of both Harkin and Specter, appeared likely to survive.
The officials who described the negotiations did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to disclose the details of the closed-door negotiations.
Obama has spoken out repeatedly in recent days to urge Congress to act quickly in the face of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
"We're at the doorstep of getting this plan through Congress, but the work is not over," he said in Springfield, Va., where he visited a construction site.
Even after the measure becomes law, he said, the challenge will be to effectively make use of the funds in an "endeavor of enormous scope and scale."
Republicans, too, took note of the size of the bill, and they said it included billions that would be wasted.
The original House bill, with a price tag of $820 billion, passed without a single Republican vote.
The $838 billion Senate bill that cleared on Tuesday had the backing of only three of 41 Republicans — but that was enough to give it the 60 votes it needed.
Collins told reporters she hoped fellow GOP lawmakers would reconsider when the final compromise comes to a vote "rather than just reflexively oppose this."
She said the negotiators had "tightened and scrubbed it" to eliminate wasteful spending.
___
Associated Press Writers Andrew Taylor and Ben Feller contributed to this story.

Utah Governor to Help Homeowners

Utah Governor to Help Homeowners, Posted by Dick
I’m visiting the Utah REALTORS® this week, and several members of the Utah State leadership and I had a chance to meet with Gov. John Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert on Tuesday.
Joining me in the photo below are (left to right) Taylor Oldroyd, CEO of the Utah County Association; Kenny Parcell, President of the Utah County Association; Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert; Matt Barton, President-Elect of the Utah County Association, Chris Kyler, CEO of the Utah Association; and Lerron Little, 2009 President-Elect of the Utah Association.
As some of you know, Gary Herbert is a REALTOR® and a past chair of NAR’s Issues Mobilization Committee. Both he and Gov. Huntsman are strong advocates for real estate. Utah’s economic strength is a credit to their good work and leadership. We are fortunate to have them both in office, and I am hopeful that Gary will follow Gov. Huntsman, who has said that he will not run for another term.
Although Utah has fared better than some other states in the current housing cycle, it has not been immune to the problems in the credit markets and the rise in foreclosures. I was very excited to hear that Gov. Huntsman is planning to set aside $30 million to help people who are have trouble with their mortgages avoid foreclosure. A portion would also help renters.
While the federal government is taking steps to address broad issues in the financial and housing markets, they can’t (and shouldn’t) be the only answer. I personally thank Gov. Huntsman and Lt. Gov. Herbert for their leadership in Utah, and I encourage other state and local leaders to do the same.
REALTORS® stand ready to work with public officials at all levels of government to help strengthen our communities and keep homeownership alive and well.
On Wednesday morning, I met with members who give significantly to RPAC through the Utah County Association. I talked to them about how we make decisions on which candidates to support, and I emphasized that 70 percent of the money they contribute stays right here in Utah. It was a good meeting, and I thank all of the Utah members who participate in our advocacy through RPAC and Grassroots.
Later that morning, I had the opportunity to speak to nearly 500 members at the Utah general membership meeting. They have three of these meetings per year, and to have that many people attend is remarkable. I spoke to them about how much we have accomplished this year, particularly on the public policy front. And I assured them that we will keep working to help REALTORS® and their clients in this challenging time.
The entire visit was inspiring, but the highlight for me was hearing Kenny Parcell address the members. Not only is he an incredible leader, but the experiences he shared, and the way he was able to reach out to REALTORS® in Utah, were just incredible.
Thanks to all of the wonderful folks in Utah for inviting me to visit – I am so proud to be your NAR President. Keep up the great work. You continue to prove that there is nothing we can’t accomplish when we work “All Together.” – Dick Gaylord, 2008 NAR President