Utah may see relatively fast economic recovery

While tied to outside influences more than ever and facing slipping economic statistics, Utah nonetheless will fare better than many states when emerging from the economic downturn, the chief economist in the Governor's Office said Tuesday.

Speaking Wednesday at the Utah Foundation's annual meeting, Juliette Tennert said Utah's economy is "more broadly integrated" with the national and global economy than ever before and thus Utah's performance will depend on what happens at those levels. But several factors — unique demographics and industry diversity among them — work in Utah's favor for recovery, she said.

"We have one of the most diverse economies in the nation," Tennert said. "That means that while we're certainly impacted by the national contraction, we'll recover quicker than many other states."

Tennert is predicting Utah's unemployment rate to pass 6.5 percent in 2010 although still be relatively low when compared to most other states and the national prediction of above 9 percent. Utah employment will move from slight growth to a 2.5 percent decline in 2009 and flatten in 2010. "This will be the worst decline since the 1950s; however, it will not be as bad as the 3-plus decline that's expected at the national level," Tennert said.

"If not for the infusion of cash (from the federal economic stimulus package), I expect that this picture would be even grimmer," Tennert said. "While the outlook over the next year is certainly weak, we should not forget about the inherent strength and durability of Utah's economy. We are well-positioned to manage the downturn, and we really should be grateful for those dynamics that I mentioned that will help keep Utah's downturn less severe and help us to recover quicker than in many other states."

Economic woes led the Legislature to budget cuts of $250 million and later $350 million. Senate Majority Assistant Whip Greg Bell, R-Fruit Heights, described those cuts as "truly Draconian" but also "done with as much precision as possible."

Federal stimulus funds "effectively hide" effects of budget cuts in 2010, but the full effects will be seen in 2011, he said.

"We don't live in a vacuum, and I think that's going to be the message today, that Utah is doing extraordinarily well in so many regards and though our ship seems to sail fairly well, we are getting a lot of backwash from national and international conditions over which we have no control," Bell said. "So for a while it seemed some were immune and now it seems no one is, and we're all going to have to live with the difficult circumstances and conditions imposed upon us by these challenging times."

Natalie Gochnour, chief operating officer at the Salt Lake Chamber, said long-term economic success for Utah can be tied to globalization efforts, including continued funding and a building to house the World Trade Center Utah and becoming a "more welcoming" state. "We live in a post-American world, period," she said. Improving education and air quality and developing energy security were among her other suggestions.



By Brice Wallace
Deseret News
Published: Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Study: Utah poised to rebound from recession quickly

SALT LAKE CITY -- A new study shows Utah may be poised to recover from the recession more quickly than most states. The reason, according to the conservative authors, is Utah's business-friendly environment.

This is a conservative study with a lot of praise for Utah's conservative Legislature and its policies, but the forecast is a pragmatic look at what businesses want and what Utah has.

Poised to attract more high-tech companies, more in research and medicine, in recreation, tourism and energy; Utah may have what it takes to climb out of the recession first.

"We do have a very attractive environment for business, and it's been stable," said Sen. Wayne Niederhauser, R-Sandy.

Niederhauser is one of the legislators cited in the study "Rich States, Poor States." Written on behalf of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, it claims Utah is one of the states that has advantages over other states.

One of the advantages comes in the area of tax policy, specifically income tax reform. Utah also has less government regulation and involvement is a plus for businesses.

Gov. Jon Huntsman is also working to promote Utah as a future renewable energy hub. Together, it could add up to an even more prosperous future for Utah.

"There probably is not another state in America right now with better practices, in terms of attracting, building and promulgating renewable energy," Huntsman said.

At the same time, Utah has a chance to lead the way in using prosperity to create a better life for people. It can do so in many ways. One example is in being smart about health care reform.

"We're saying it's great the state is embarking on health system reform. Let's make sure that, at the end of the day, those reforms result in predictable costs for businesses and affordable costs for employees so they can succeed on the job," said Judi Hilman, with the Utah Health Policy Project.

By comparison, states like California and New York have been raising taxes steadily. That has led to a very difficult downward spiral for those states.

By Richard Piatt
KSL-Salt lake City, Utah

Waiting for gov's signature on $6,000 grant bill

We're getting lots of questions about the $6,000 "Home Run" grant program. Utah Housing says they are not releasing any more information about the program until the governor signs the billl.

They say, in the meantime, people should start house shopping and talking with their lender. When the program is implemented, the lender will be the key link to getting the grant. We'll keep you posted here with any new developments on the program.

Ut Assoc Realtors's Notes

UTAH'S NEW $6,000 GRANT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION - THIS IS HUGE, DON'T WAIT - PLEASE READ AND CONTACT ME!

I'm told that this can be used for FHA and Conventional financing and is not limited to first time home owners. However, this is only good for spec homes and new construction. Ill keep you posted once I have more information on getting the money.

Most of you have now heard about the State's effort to boost home
sales by passing HB-0206 bill aimed at the New Construction industry.
This bill will set aside $10 Million dollars of the Federal Stimulus money for the home buyer grants. Theoretically, this would provide grants to about 1,600 purchasers.

I have already been on the phone with key people finding out the specifics of the program and am happy to share the following information with you.


FACTS:
1. As of 12:30PM today, the bill has actually NOT been signed by the governor yet. But it is expected to be signed by end of day.
2. The program will be administered by the Utah Housing Corporation (www.utahhousingcorp.org
- (801) 902-8200 Darlene)
3. Lenders wishing to participate in the program must register with UHC even if they have been registered in the past for a divverent program.
4. Criteria for the loans are simple. 1) Income restriction of no more than $75K individual or $150K couple, 2) Loan must be 30 Year Fixed of any type (FHA or Conv), and 3) Must reside in residence for 3 Years. Final details will be listed on their site as soon as the governor signs the bill.
5. New Construction is defined as a home that has NEVER been lived in. No matter how long it has sat on the market.
6) It only takes about 48-hours to get approved for the Grant.
7) The fund will be reserved for 30 Days.
8) Unfinished homes qualify as long as you can get a 30-year Fixed loan.

I have signed up to receive the official notification once it is posted on the UHC web site which will mark the official start-up of the program.

STEVE JACKSON
801-243-8202
sjackson@signaturegrouputah.com
www.signaturegrouputah.com/sjackson
http://realtor4utah.blogspot.com

Real Estate Outlook: Housing Positioned For Growth

No economist has more information at his or her disposal than Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and what he told Congress last week should be encouraging news for anyone interested in real estate: The recession that has gripped the country painfully for 18 months will "end" later this year - moving us into positive economic growth.

In the meantime, housing may be better positioned than other major industries. That's because there appears to be significant interest in the improved $8.000, nonrepayable home buyer tax credit plus a historically-favorable combination of low interest rates and rolled-back home prices.

In a new research report, the National Association of Home Builders found that affordability of houses is now at its best level in years. The association's "Housing Opportunity Index" -- which measures the percentage of homes sold in local markets around the country that are affordable to families earning area median incomes -- hit a near-record 62.4 percent in the most recent quarter for which data is available.

By contrast a year earlier, the index was at 47, meaning that less than half of households could afford to buy a median priced home. During the boom years it was even worse.

Although rising unemployment is a sobering counter-trend, the improvement in affordability may be setting the stage for a real estate rebound -- even if monthly ebbs and flows in sales look gloomy in the first quarter of the year .

Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-5 percent range for 30-year fixed rate loans. Fifteen year rates are at 4.7 percent.

While average prices of homes continue to decline on a national basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, dozens of local markets -- most of them ignored by widely-publicized surveys such as Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index -- continue to show net positive selling price performance.

You don't hear about these positives because these areas were lower profile during the boom, never experienced a bust, and are just not on the New York radar screens.

But they're for real, and their moderate, sensible growth patterns may be where we're headed in real estate this year.

by Kenneth R. Harne,y Published: March 3, 2009

Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation.