Economists React: ‘Plunge Is Over’ in Existing-Home Sales

Economists and others weigh in on the decline in existing-home sales.

Home sales have stabilized following the post-Lehmans plunge and remain above January’s trough of 4,490,000. March’s fall is probably just noise rather than a renewed downward trend. Admittedly, around 50% of sales are now related to distressed properties, which is hardly a sign of strength.

But at least these sales are helping to reduce the inventory overhang… Overall, with the housing market having led the economy into the recession, it is no surprise that it might be the first sector to stabilise. Nonetheless, we suspect that prices have yet to reach their floor. –Paul Dales, Capital Economics

This is a bit disappointing but the big picture is still clear; the plunge in sales following the Lehman blowup is over. Unfortunately … prices will continue to fall rapidly for the foreseeable future, though at least the rate of decline should not get any worse. The floor for prices is probably a late 2010 story. –Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

The report was very disappointing, particularly given the broad-based nature of the declines… With the backdrop for U.S. households continuing to deteriorate on account of the worsening labor market conditions and weakening economy, we expect the housing market correction to continue well into this year. Nevertheless, the pace of decline is likely to ease as improved housing affordability conditions begin to spur housing demand. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities

The weaker-than-expected result does not change the broad trend in sales, however, which continues to point to a tenuous stabilization… Sales in the western United States, where foreclosure activity is most prevalent, show a distinctly different pattern than those in other regions. Total existing sales (single family sales plus condos and co-ops) are up 19% year-to-year in the West… The improvement in sales in the Western region is an encouraging sign that discounted prices, record low mortgage rates and various tax incentives are stimulating new demand. –Nomura Global Economics

Although home resales were down in March, one can make a reasonable argument that resales are bottoming (albeit as a result of steep cuts in price as distressed and foreclosure sales make up a large share of existing home sales) as the average level of sales in the first quarter was similar to the fourth quarter’s average. –RDQ Economics

After dropping by 11% in October and November combined, likely reflecting the fallout from the financial meltdown in September, resales have held between 4.49 million and 4.74 million units, pointing to some stabilization in housing demand. With housing affordability rising dramatically thanks to lower prices and lower mortgage rates, demand from first-time homebuyers seems to be on the rise and is clearly supporting the market.

Indeed, the NAR pointed out that first-time buyers accounted for just over half of all existing home sales in March. Still, first-time buyers typically purchase at the lower end of the market, which could help to explain why half of all resales last month were distressed properties. –Omair Sharif, RBS

Compiled by Phil Izzo
Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal.

Utah may see relatively fast economic recovery

While tied to outside influences more than ever and facing slipping economic statistics, Utah nonetheless will fare better than many states when emerging from the economic downturn, the chief economist in the Governor's Office said Tuesday.

Speaking Wednesday at the Utah Foundation's annual meeting, Juliette Tennert said Utah's economy is "more broadly integrated" with the national and global economy than ever before and thus Utah's performance will depend on what happens at those levels. But several factors — unique demographics and industry diversity among them — work in Utah's favor for recovery, she said.

"We have one of the most diverse economies in the nation," Tennert said. "That means that while we're certainly impacted by the national contraction, we'll recover quicker than many other states."

Tennert is predicting Utah's unemployment rate to pass 6.5 percent in 2010 although still be relatively low when compared to most other states and the national prediction of above 9 percent. Utah employment will move from slight growth to a 2.5 percent decline in 2009 and flatten in 2010. "This will be the worst decline since the 1950s; however, it will not be as bad as the 3-plus decline that's expected at the national level," Tennert said.

"If not for the infusion of cash (from the federal economic stimulus package), I expect that this picture would be even grimmer," Tennert said. "While the outlook over the next year is certainly weak, we should not forget about the inherent strength and durability of Utah's economy. We are well-positioned to manage the downturn, and we really should be grateful for those dynamics that I mentioned that will help keep Utah's downturn less severe and help us to recover quicker than in many other states."

Economic woes led the Legislature to budget cuts of $250 million and later $350 million. Senate Majority Assistant Whip Greg Bell, R-Fruit Heights, described those cuts as "truly Draconian" but also "done with as much precision as possible."

Federal stimulus funds "effectively hide" effects of budget cuts in 2010, but the full effects will be seen in 2011, he said.

"We don't live in a vacuum, and I think that's going to be the message today, that Utah is doing extraordinarily well in so many regards and though our ship seems to sail fairly well, we are getting a lot of backwash from national and international conditions over which we have no control," Bell said. "So for a while it seemed some were immune and now it seems no one is, and we're all going to have to live with the difficult circumstances and conditions imposed upon us by these challenging times."

Natalie Gochnour, chief operating officer at the Salt Lake Chamber, said long-term economic success for Utah can be tied to globalization efforts, including continued funding and a building to house the World Trade Center Utah and becoming a "more welcoming" state. "We live in a post-American world, period," she said. Improving education and air quality and developing energy security were among her other suggestions.



By Brice Wallace
Deseret News
Published: Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Study: Utah poised to rebound from recession quickly

SALT LAKE CITY -- A new study shows Utah may be poised to recover from the recession more quickly than most states. The reason, according to the conservative authors, is Utah's business-friendly environment.

This is a conservative study with a lot of praise for Utah's conservative Legislature and its policies, but the forecast is a pragmatic look at what businesses want and what Utah has.

Poised to attract more high-tech companies, more in research and medicine, in recreation, tourism and energy; Utah may have what it takes to climb out of the recession first.

"We do have a very attractive environment for business, and it's been stable," said Sen. Wayne Niederhauser, R-Sandy.

Niederhauser is one of the legislators cited in the study "Rich States, Poor States." Written on behalf of the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, it claims Utah is one of the states that has advantages over other states.

One of the advantages comes in the area of tax policy, specifically income tax reform. Utah also has less government regulation and involvement is a plus for businesses.

Gov. Jon Huntsman is also working to promote Utah as a future renewable energy hub. Together, it could add up to an even more prosperous future for Utah.

"There probably is not another state in America right now with better practices, in terms of attracting, building and promulgating renewable energy," Huntsman said.

At the same time, Utah has a chance to lead the way in using prosperity to create a better life for people. It can do so in many ways. One example is in being smart about health care reform.

"We're saying it's great the state is embarking on health system reform. Let's make sure that, at the end of the day, those reforms result in predictable costs for businesses and affordable costs for employees so they can succeed on the job," said Judi Hilman, with the Utah Health Policy Project.

By comparison, states like California and New York have been raising taxes steadily. That has led to a very difficult downward spiral for those states.

By Richard Piatt
KSL-Salt lake City, Utah

Waiting for gov's signature on $6,000 grant bill

We're getting lots of questions about the $6,000 "Home Run" grant program. Utah Housing says they are not releasing any more information about the program until the governor signs the billl.

They say, in the meantime, people should start house shopping and talking with their lender. When the program is implemented, the lender will be the key link to getting the grant. We'll keep you posted here with any new developments on the program.

Ut Assoc Realtors's Notes

UTAH'S NEW $6,000 GRANT FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION - THIS IS HUGE, DON'T WAIT - PLEASE READ AND CONTACT ME!

I'm told that this can be used for FHA and Conventional financing and is not limited to first time home owners. However, this is only good for spec homes and new construction. Ill keep you posted once I have more information on getting the money.

Most of you have now heard about the State's effort to boost home
sales by passing HB-0206 bill aimed at the New Construction industry.
This bill will set aside $10 Million dollars of the Federal Stimulus money for the home buyer grants. Theoretically, this would provide grants to about 1,600 purchasers.

I have already been on the phone with key people finding out the specifics of the program and am happy to share the following information with you.


FACTS:
1. As of 12:30PM today, the bill has actually NOT been signed by the governor yet. But it is expected to be signed by end of day.
2. The program will be administered by the Utah Housing Corporation (www.utahhousingcorp.org
- (801) 902-8200 Darlene)
3. Lenders wishing to participate in the program must register with UHC even if they have been registered in the past for a divverent program.
4. Criteria for the loans are simple. 1) Income restriction of no more than $75K individual or $150K couple, 2) Loan must be 30 Year Fixed of any type (FHA or Conv), and 3) Must reside in residence for 3 Years. Final details will be listed on their site as soon as the governor signs the bill.
5. New Construction is defined as a home that has NEVER been lived in. No matter how long it has sat on the market.
6) It only takes about 48-hours to get approved for the Grant.
7) The fund will be reserved for 30 Days.
8) Unfinished homes qualify as long as you can get a 30-year Fixed loan.

I have signed up to receive the official notification once it is posted on the UHC web site which will mark the official start-up of the program.

STEVE JACKSON
801-243-8202
sjackson@signaturegrouputah.com
www.signaturegrouputah.com/sjackson
http://realtor4utah.blogspot.com

Real Estate Outlook: Housing Positioned For Growth

No economist has more information at his or her disposal than Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and what he told Congress last week should be encouraging news for anyone interested in real estate: The recession that has gripped the country painfully for 18 months will "end" later this year - moving us into positive economic growth.

In the meantime, housing may be better positioned than other major industries. That's because there appears to be significant interest in the improved $8.000, nonrepayable home buyer tax credit plus a historically-favorable combination of low interest rates and rolled-back home prices.

In a new research report, the National Association of Home Builders found that affordability of houses is now at its best level in years. The association's "Housing Opportunity Index" -- which measures the percentage of homes sold in local markets around the country that are affordable to families earning area median incomes -- hit a near-record 62.4 percent in the most recent quarter for which data is available.

By contrast a year earlier, the index was at 47, meaning that less than half of households could afford to buy a median priced home. During the boom years it was even worse.

Although rising unemployment is a sobering counter-trend, the improvement in affordability may be setting the stage for a real estate rebound -- even if monthly ebbs and flows in sales look gloomy in the first quarter of the year .

Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-5 percent range for 30-year fixed rate loans. Fifteen year rates are at 4.7 percent.

While average prices of homes continue to decline on a national basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, dozens of local markets -- most of them ignored by widely-publicized surveys such as Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Index -- continue to show net positive selling price performance.

You don't hear about these positives because these areas were lower profile during the boom, never experienced a bust, and are just not on the New York radar screens.

But they're for real, and their moderate, sensible growth patterns may be where we're headed in real estate this year.

by Kenneth R. Harne,y Published: March 3, 2009

Kenneth R. Harney writes an award-winning, nationally-syndicated column on housing and real estate from Washington, D.C. He is also managing director of the National Real Estate Development Center, a professional education company. He is a past member of the Federal Reserve Board's Consumer Advisory Council, a committee that by federal statute reviews all Fed actions on home mortgage, consmer credit and banking industry regulation.

First Time Homebuyer Credit...A Simple Explanation

First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit: 6 Things to Know

While the proposed $15,000 home-buyer tax credit died in negotiations between the House and the Senate, the $787 billion stimulus bill that President Barack Obama signed into law Tuesday includes a similar--albeit smaller--measure designed to help revive the real estate market. Here are six things you need to know about the reshly-enacted $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

1. Eight grand, new buyers: The tax credit included in the economic stimulus legislation is much narrower than the $15,000 proposal. This credit is equivalent to 10 percent of the purchase price of the home--although it's capped at $8,000--and applies only to first-time home buyers and principal residences. But unlike an earlier $7,500 home buyer tax credit, this one does not have to be repaid.

2. First time buyers defined: For the purpose of this legislation, a "first-time home buyer" is someone who hasn't owned a principal residence for three years before buying a house. (The date of purchase is considered the day that the title is transferred.) That means if you've owned a vacation home--but not a principal residence--within the past three years, you would still qualify for the credit.

3. 2009 buyers only: Only those who purchase a home on or after January 1 and before December 1, 2009 are eligible for the credit. Anyone who bought a home last year won't be able to take advantage of it.

4. Income limits: The tax credit is subject to income limitations. Single buyers need a modified adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less to qualify for the full credit, that's $150,000 for married couples. Those earning more than these thresholds may be eligible for reduced credits.

5. Refundable: Because the tax credit is "refundable," qualified buyers can take advantage of it even if they don't have much tax liability.

6. Recapture: Buyers have to own the home for at least three years in order to capitalize on the credit. If they sell the home before then, they will have to return the credit to the government. (Exceptions will be made in certain cases, such as death or divorce.)

Copyright © 2009 U.S.News & World Report, Luke Mullins